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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 39 games
51%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 38 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 35 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 35 games
54%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
65%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 25 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusk
GH · 37 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Ghost · 23 games
39%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 23 games
61%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
48%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
423 picks · 356 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
339 picks · 183 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
336 picks · 781 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
331 picks · 326 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
316 picks · 823 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
273 picks · 540 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
271 picks · 620 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
268 picks · 356 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:16
Aurora Gaming 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 48:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNightfall
51% · 181 game60% · 112 games
AlchemistGhost
Alchemist
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
51% · 169 games49% · 181 game
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 146 games52% · 126 games
EarthshakerNo!ob
Earthshaker
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
50% · 178 games52% · 182 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Bane
BaneMira
47% · 65 games44% · 138 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed34:40
Aurora Gaming 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:03:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
Tinkerkiyotaka
49% · 43 games46% · 154 games
Shadow FiendSumaiL
Shadow Fiend
Marci
MarciNightfall
46% · 184 games47% · 115 games
UrsaGhost
Ursa
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
59% · 187 games56% · 101 game
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Batrider
BatriderMira
50% · 274 games46% · 360 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
48% · 150 games54% · 108 games
BaneOmaR
Bane
Game 3prediction missed13:20
Aurora Gaming 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
Earthshakerkiyotaka
59% · 129 games50% · 171 game
MedusaGhost
Medusa
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
54% · 32 games41% · 71 game
UnderlordNo!ob
Underlord
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 203 games46% · 137 games
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
55% · 321 game49% · 323 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
48% · 120 games50% · 103 games
BaneOmaR
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 71%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3