?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 51 game
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 46 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 45 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 41 game
76%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 41 game
66%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 33 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
72%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 31 game
58%

Nigma Galaxy

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
54%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
GH · 19 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
24%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 17 games
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 17 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
666 picks · 828 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
578 picks · 596 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
475 picks · 322 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
474 picks · 416 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1086 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 693 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
390 picks · 1001 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 625 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total84% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:30
Aurora Gaming 71%Nigma Galaxy 29%
The model gave 71% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 49:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
52% · 294 games54% · 134 games
Clinkzrincyq
Clinkz
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMikoto
52% · 256 games50% · 269 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Mars
MarsWs
46% · 340 games49% · 317 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
50% · 540 games53% · 345 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
50% · 342 games46% · 707 games
TuskOmaR
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct46:11
Aurora Gaming 73%Nigma Galaxy 27%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorNightfall
54% · 119 games41% · 95 games
Lunarincyq
Luna
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
42% · 143 games52% · 296 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckMikoto
53% · 340 games53% · 171 game
TidehunterDavai
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
46% · 207 games55% · 111 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
53% · 274 games50% · 410 games
WarlockGH
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 84%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2