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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 39 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 37 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 35 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 28 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 28 games
71%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 28 games
68%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 27 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 26 games
88%

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 25 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 19 games
84%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 16 games
81%
Invoker
Invokersignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
80%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 14 games
57%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 14 games
43%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
634 picks · 997 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 444 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
463 picks · 638 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 489 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
448 picks · 1052 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
444 picks · 280 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
421 picks · 585 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
420 picks · 518 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total64% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:30
Aurora Gaming 56%PARIVISION 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
46% · 209 games51% · 97 games
KezSatanic
Kez
Largo
LargoWs
55% · 58 games51% · 123 games
InvokerNo[o]ne
Invoker
Razor
RazorLorenof
45% · 75 games46% · 164 games
Primal BeastSSS
Primal Beast
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
51% · 225 games51% · 423 games
RingmasterDukalis
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
48% · 435 games57% · 195 games
Monkey King9Class
Monkey King
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Aurora Gaming 56%PARIVISION 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
44% · 192 games51% · 531 game
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
47% · 217 games52% · 105 games
ClinkzSatanic
Clinkz
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLorenof
45% · 362 games48% · 400 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
49% · 317 games60% · 226 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Warlock
WarlockKaori
48% · 389 games54% · 215 games
Marci9Class
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 64%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2