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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 47 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 44 games
75%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 43 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 41 game
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 35 games
66%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 35 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 31 game
74%

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 27 games
67%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 25 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 19 games
47%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 19 games
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
615 picks · 575 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 407 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 407 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
452 picks · 512 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
447 picks · 218 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
403 picks · 251 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1036 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 894 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total58% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:26
Aurora Gaming 54%PARIVISION 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 49:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
57% · 92 games54% · 21 game
Phantom LancerSatanic
Phantom Lancer
Puck
PuckMikoto
52% · 205 games44% · 368 games
TidehunterNo[o]ne
Tidehunter
Slardar
SlardarWs
50% · 197 games46% · 301 game
AxeSSS
Axe
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
52% · 175 games50% · 252 games
Leshrac9Class
Leshrac
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
48% · 341 game53% · 68 games
MiranaDukalis
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed24:48
Aurora Gaming 54%PARIVISION 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 53:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
44% · 225 games47% · 148 games
KezSatanic
Kez
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
53% · 193 games52% · 164 games
InvokerNo[o]ne
Invoker
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
52% · 155 games45% · 200 games
Leshrac9Class
Leshrac
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
54% · 189 games51% · 368 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
52% · 328 games51% · 210 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Game 3prediction correct41:18
Aurora Gaming 55%PARIVISION 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 51:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
54% · 72 games55% · 325 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
47% · 260 games41% · 363 games
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
Void Spirit
Slardar
SlardarWs
52% · 286 games51% · 335 games
TidehunterSSS
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
50% · 234 games47% · 149 games
Keeper of the Light9Class
Keeper of the Light
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
47% · 393 games60% · 73 games
MiranaDukalis
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 58%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3