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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
98%2%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Silkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 31 game
58%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 30 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 29 games
62%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 26 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 26 games
69%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 25 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
70%
Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 22 games
59%

Silk

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Michael · 4 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
0%
Kez
Kezoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Adrx · 2 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Adrx · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Genek · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Genek · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
604 picks · 949 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
533 picks · 433 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
480 picks · 636 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
466 picks · 616 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 959 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 662 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
399 picks · 244 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 537 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 18%
Hero pool strength66% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total98% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:17
Aurora Gaming 87%Silk 13%
The model gave 87% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistLorenof
43% · 21 game49% · 52 games
JuggernautDaaD-
Juggernaut
Razor
RazorNightfall
56% · 41 game55% · 128 games
UnderlordAdrx
Underlord
Mars
MarsWs
41% · 186 games58% · 87 games
Keeper of the LightGenek
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
47% · 122 games53% · 162 games
Shadow DemonMichael
Shadow Demon
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKaori
43% · 59 games
Game 2prediction correct27:21
Aurora Gaming 86%Silk 14%
The model gave 86% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 19:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
48% · 97 games52% · 250 games
MuertaDaaD-
Muerta
Razor
RazorLorenof
56% · 66 games55% · 66 games
LargoAdrx
Largo
Slardar
SlardarWs
52% · 187 games45% · 141 game
Skywrath MageMichael
Skywrath Mage
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
47% · 139 games49% · 427 games
TuskGenek
Tusk
Jakiro
JakiroMira
47% · 395 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 98%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2