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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:1
South America Rejectsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 44 games
75%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 41 game
66%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 39 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 34 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 31 game
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 30 games
70%

South America Rejects

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Elmisho · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wits · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wits · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkka
DarkMago · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
633 picks · 626 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
512 picks · 417 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 406 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
430 picks · 450 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
422 picks · 274 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
405 picks · 189 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
395 picks · 1058 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 853 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:26
Aurora Gaming 81%South America Rejects 19%
The model gave 81% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidNightfall
75% · 8 games46% · 236 games
MuertaWits
Muerta
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
46% · 313 games50% · 220 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Slardar
SlardarWs
49% · 266 games55% · 394 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
48% · 503 games50% · 472 games
HoodwinkElmisho
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
54% · 311 games49% · 79 games
GrimstrokeScofield
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed5:25
Aurora Gaming 81%South America Rejects 19%
The model gave 81% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 24:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
48% · 496 games53% · 275 games
Monkey KingWits
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
51% · 463 games56% · 654 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierWs
46% · 357 games53% · 410 games
SlardarFrank
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
49% · 563 games53% · 578 games
Shadow DemonElmisho
Shadow Demon
Rubick
RubickMira
45% · 122 games43% · 84 games
GrimstrokeScofield
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct43:12
Aurora Gaming 81%South America Rejects 19%
The model gave 81% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
57% · 190 games51% · 167 games
WindrangerWits
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierWs
47% · 236 games49% · 116 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
54% · 124 games45% · 182 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
47% · 253 games48% · 352 games
Shadow DemonElmisho
Shadow Demon
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
43% · 89 games60% · 75 games
GrimstrokeScofield
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 95%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3