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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Ponyo · 13 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 13 games
69%
Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
431 picks · 666 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
411 picks · 593 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 733 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
410 picks · 380 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
339 picks · 955 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:8
Aurora Gaming 60%Talon Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:40.
Game 2prediction missed31:10
Aurora Gaming 60%Talon Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 60%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2