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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Jabz · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrider
Q · 13 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 12 games
42%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 12 games
42%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Q · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 11 games
55%

Talon Esports

Phoenix
Phoenix
Ponyo · 17 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 16 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 15 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 12 games
67%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Jhocam · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
453 picks · 603 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
388 picks · 419 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 471 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
332 picks · 409 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 597 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
305 picks · 165 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
285 picks · 343 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
271 picks · 794 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total57% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:8
Aurora Gaming 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTA2000
52% · 229 games43% · 198 games
MedusaAkashi
Medusa
Doom
DoomJabz
51% · 255 games49% · 221 game
BeastmasterWs
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAbed
52% · 258 games50% · 501 game
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderQ
50% · 257 games42% · 166 games
MuertaJhocam
Muerta
Pugna
PugnaMalady
53% · 146 games59% · 59 games
Ogre MagiKuku
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed5:29
Aurora Gaming 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTA2000
47% · 252 games50% · 169 games
Shadow FiendAkashi
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
48% · 160 games55% · 108 games
BristlebackWs
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJabz
44% · 161 game57% · 151 game
Monkey KingMikoto
Monkey King
Tinker
TinkerMalady
46% · 16 games55% · 141 game
Naga SirenKuku
Naga Siren
Snapfire
SnapfireQ
45% · 153 games54% · 173 games
LionJhocam
Lion
Game 3prediction correct25:0
Aurora Gaming 55%Talon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 21:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTA2000
50% · 235 games49% · 185 games
Shadow FiendAkashi
Shadow Fiend
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAbed
51% · 91 game54% · 267 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJabz
42% · 88 games54% · 76 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressMalady
51% · 245 games53% · 339 games
BatriderJhocam
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQ
45% · 264 games50% · 56 games
Ogre MagiKuku
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 57%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3