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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 20 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
83%
Muerta
Muerta
Q · 12 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 32 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 26 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 23 games
70%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 20 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 20 games
55%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 20 games
75%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 686 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
431 picks · 697 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 405 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
412 picks · 316 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
372 picks · 966 bans
58%
Bristleback
Bristleback
370 picks · 860 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 502 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
364 picks · 423 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total55% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:8
Aurora Gaming 45%Talon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
43% · 149 games50% · 344 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
56% · 176 games47% · 381 game
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 162 games48% · 196 games
MarsWs
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
48% · 310 games51% · 87 games
Bounty HunterJhocam
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
TuskMira
47% · 235 games65% · 24 games
Ancient ApparitionKuku
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed28:12
Aurora Gaming 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNightfall
48% · 196 games55% · 288 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 195 games53% · 247 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
44% · 311 games47% · 340 games
PhoenixWs
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskMira
48% · 295 games57% · 96 games
Night StalkerJhocam
Night Stalker
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
46% · 198 games57% · 224 games
Crystal MaidenKuku
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 55%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2