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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 30 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 22 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 19 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 18 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 18 games
72%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 26 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kuku · 26 games
58%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 23 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 21 game
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
492 picks · 486 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 556 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
418 picks · 201 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
324 picks · 574 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 396 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
280 picks · 170 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
277 picks · 591 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
266 picks · 467 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 35%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total66% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:55
Aurora Gaming 58%Talon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:20:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
Rikikiyotaka
56% · 49 games55% · 26 games
Omniknight23savage
Omniknight
Tiny
TinyNightfall
50% · 406 games49% · 204 games
DoomWs
Doom
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
60% · 160 games46% · 390 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPanto
53% · 113 games45% · 159 games
RingmasterJhocam
Ringmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
50% · 150 games42% · 99 games
SilencerKuku
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed34:36
Aurora Gaming 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 53:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
46% · 94 games42% · 38 games
Drow Ranger23savage
Drow Ranger
Bristleback
BristlebackTORONTOTOKYO
57% · 245 games52% · 488 games
TinyMikoto
Tiny
Pangolier
Pangolierkiyotaka
52% · 335 games52% · 182 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
53% · 162 games43% · 120 games
Shadow ShamanJhocam
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
52% · 149 games48% · 157 games
RingmasterKuku
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct17:3
Aurora Gaming 57%Talon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
50% · 200 games59% · 29 games
Faceless Void23savage
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 359 games55% · 145 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerkiyotaka
53% · 19 games44% · 401 game
TinyMikoto
Tiny
Chen
ChenPanto
53% · 72 games49% · 127 games
RingmasterKuku
Ringmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
47% · 121 game51% · 69 games
BloodseekerJhocam
Bloodseeker
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 66%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3