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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Cobraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 50 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 30 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 29 games
72%
Windranger
Windranger
Nightfall · 29 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 28 games
61%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 25 games
52%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 23 games
61%

Team Cobra

Bane
Baneoften banned
StingeR · 2 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
StingeR · 2 games
0%
Sven
Sven
Parker · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CoYoTão · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Lumpy · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
481 picks · 290 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
340 picks · 142 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
334 picks · 156 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 462 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 441 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
272 picks · 250 bans
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
270 picks · 197 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:12
Aurora Gaming 83%Team Cobra 17%
The model gave 83% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidSkiter
59% · 81 game46% · 137 games
TerrorbladeParker
Terrorblade
Lycan
LycanWs
48% · 152 games49% · 240 games
PangolierLumpy
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
57% · 338 games44% · 197 games
TidehunterFrank
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaMira
51% · 113 games50% · 64 games
SilencerStingeR
Silencer
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKaori
52% · 115 games46% · 161 game
TechiesCoYoTão
Techies
Game 2prediction correct50:17
Aurora Gaming 82%Team Cobra 18%
The model gave 82% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidSkiter
57% · 55 games43% · 128 games
LunaParker
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
54% · 318 games46% · 483 games
PuckLumpy
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerWs
51% · 96 games52% · 234 games
LargoFrank
Largo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 495 games46% · 327 games
ClockwerkCoYoTão
Clockwerk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
56% · 237 games45% · 29 games
OracleStingeR
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 95%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2