DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2series probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Falcons
Marssignature
ATF · 33 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 18 games
Lunasignature
Skiter · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
375 picks · 340 bans
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 318 bans
Centaur Warrunner
325 picks · 476 bans
Mars
298 picks · 402 bans
Techies
281 picks · 197 bans
Hoodwink
276 picks · 152 bans
Pangolier
270 picks · 405 bans
Batrider
267 picks · 472 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 66%
Hero pool strength67% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
Aurora Gaming 6%Team Falcons 94%
The model gave 94% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:36.
Game 2prediction correct9:18
Aurora Gaming 6%Team Falcons 94%
The model gave 94% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 21:50.
Game 3prediction correct10:22
Aurora Gaming 6%Team Falcons 94%
The model gave 94% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 47:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 94%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3