?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 54 games
69%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 54 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 49 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 41 game
76%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 40 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 36 games
64%

Team Falcons

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 25 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 22 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
546 picks · 330 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
473 picks · 571 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
435 picks · 231 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
425 picks · 356 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 491 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
333 picks · 224 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 850 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
317 picks · 813 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total58% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:8
Aurora Gaming 47%Team Falcons 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 23:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidNightfall
58% · 42 games54% · 184 games
WindrangerSkiter
Windranger
Slardar
SlardarWs
53% · 347 games54% · 162 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
49% · 185 games44% · 344 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
49% · 294 games47% · 311 games
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
Bane
BaneMira
56% · 196 games37% · 63 games
LichSneyking
Lich
Game 2prediction missed38:18
Aurora Gaming 47%Team Falcons 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
47% · 114 games42% · 125 games
LifestealerSkiter
Lifestealer
Snapfire
SnapfireMikoto
51% · 134 games56% · 207 games
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Axe
AxeWs
54% · 121 game50% · 42 games
Death ProphetMalr1ne
Death Prophet
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
48% · 168 games48% · 65 games
LichSneyking
Lich
Bane
BaneMira
53% · 67 games52% · 165 games
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 58%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2