ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Kukuyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
Hoodwink
Q · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 12 games
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 12 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 11 games
Team Kukuys
Marci
Palos · 7 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Jing · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 5 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
476 picks · 392 bans
Clockwerk
439 picks · 549 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 502 bans
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 635 bans
Lion
391 picks · 207 bans
Phoenix
380 picks · 429 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 581 bans
Beastmaster
348 picks · 888 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:26
Aurora Gaming 74%Team Kukuys 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 43:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth SpiritAbed
MorphlingAbat
Dragon KnightPalos
LinaArmel
Night StalkerJabz
PhoenixPonyo
LionQ
GyrocopterOli
Game 2prediction missed24:22
Aurora Gaming 73%Team Kukuys 27%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 42:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectrePalos
MedusaAbat
InvokerAbed
Earth SpiritArmel
VisageJabz
PhoenixPonyo
Nyx AssassinQ
PugnaOli
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 87%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2