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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 38 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 26 games
77%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 25 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 40 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
553 picks · 625 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
492 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
455 picks · 401 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
414 picks · 463 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
407 picks · 853 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 350 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 568 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 531 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total51% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:11
Aurora Gaming 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
44% · 145 games56% · 119 games
LinamiCKe
Lina
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
45% · 191 game49% · 216 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkiyotaka
37% · 141 game61% · 230 games
BristlebackSabeRLight-
Bristleback
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
56% · 213 games59% · 123 games
Naga SireniNSaNiA
Naga Siren
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
41% · 201 game52% · 203 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed11:42
Aurora Gaming 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNightfall
46% · 265 games48% · 485 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
49% · 319 games62% · 28 games
VenomancerSabeRLight-
Venomancer
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 250 games53% · 244 games
Monkey KingNisha
Monkey King
Chen
ChenPanto
55% · 114 games50% · 159 games
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Elder Titan
Rubick
RubickMira
44% · 170 games47% · 202 games
Shadow ShamanBoxi
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed14:44
Aurora Gaming 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
51% · 305 games50% · 137 games
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Sven
SvenNightfall
48% · 171 game54% · 248 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 259 games50% · 103 games
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
48% · 266 games48% · 366 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
51% · 245 games44% · 392 games
TuskiNSaNiA
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 51%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3