?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 40 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 40 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 39 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 30 games
73%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 29 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 28 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 27 games
85%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 27 games
70%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 42 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 27 games
44%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 25 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 25 games
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 23 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 23 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
634 picks · 994 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
527 picks · 439 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 634 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
452 picks · 1065 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 494 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
445 picks · 281 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 583 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
421 picks · 505 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total53% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:35
Aurora Gaming 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNightfall
46% · 555 games55% · 329 games
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
49% · 547 games54% · 527 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
53% · 262 games46% · 516 games
MarsAce
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
54% · 403 games49% · 240 games
PhoenixtOfu
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockKaori
47% · 536 games47% · 691 game
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct43:30
Aurora Gaming 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 49:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
41% · 306 games53% · 148 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
55% · 74 games47% · 502 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsWs
48% · 394 games52% · 285 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
53% · 373 games56% · 257 games
ChentOfu
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
47% · 667 games49% · 622 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed31:39
Aurora Gaming 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
51% · 182 games57% · 92 games
KezmiCKe
Kez
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLorenof
57% · 196 games55% · 129 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWs
47% · 140 games44% · 339 games
MarsAce
Mars
Tiny
TinyMira
40% · 330 games48% · 413 games
WarlocktOfu
Warlock
Pugna
PugnaKaori
48% · 154 games59% · 29 games
Earth SpiritBoxi
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3