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BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 56 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 48 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 44 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 44 games
75%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 43 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 37 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 31 game
68%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 21 game
62%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 21 game
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
70%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 16 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 16 games
63%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
678 picks · 841 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 578 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 429 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
476 picks · 334 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1144 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 689 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 621 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
395 picks · 1029 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:27
Aurora Gaming 75%Team Lynx 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 59:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNightfall
50% · 129 games52% · 75 games
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
Keeper of the Light
Puck
PuckMikoto
42% · 271 game52% · 152 games
Muerta7jesu
Muerta
Largo
LargoWs
54% · 82 games51% · 120 games
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickMira
60% · 48 games46% · 150 games
Phoenixkreker
Phoenix
Venomancer
VenomancerKaori
51% · 41 game46% · 74 games
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed6:33
Aurora Gaming 75%Team Lynx 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 26:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
44% · 126 games54% · 73 games
Razormellojul
Razor
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
46% · 90 games58% · 153 games
Muerta7jesu
Muerta
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
47% · 152 games51% · 230 games
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
Slardar
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
44% · 67 games50% · 76 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
51% · 145 games53% · 48 games
Treant Protectorkreker
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct32:8
Aurora Gaming 78%Team Lynx 22%
The model gave 78% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 27:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
62% · 51 game48% · 291 game
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Largo
LargoWs
53% · 79 games49% · 202 games
Ursa7jesu
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
48% · 384 games46% · 80 games
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
Dark Seer
Venomancer
VenomancerKaori
48% · 56 games46% · 167 games
Phoenixkreker
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 246 games53% · 76 games
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 91%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3