DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TMTeam Mantapsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 10 games
Snapfire
Q · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
Jabz · 9 games
Elder Titan
Oli · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Q · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 7 games
Windrangeroften banned
23savage · 7 games
Team Mantaps
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
Rubick
328 picks · 316 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 454 bans
Hoodwink
323 picks · 376 bans
Snapfire
317 picks · 268 bans
Dragon Knight
291 picks · 451 bans
Windranger
288 picks · 403 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:4
Aurora Gaming 91%Team Mantaps 9%
The model gave 91% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 30:49.
Game 2prediction correct16:39
Aurora Gaming 91%Team Mantaps 9%
The model gave 91% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 91%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2