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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 25 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 24 games
42%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
57%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
60%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 12 games
42%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
45%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 10 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mac · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Ponyo · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 7 games
29%
Pugna
Pugna
NARMAN · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
776 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
603 picks · 302 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
577 picks · 485 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
564 picks · 698 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
553 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 318 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
501 picks · 754 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
496 picks · 561 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:31
Aurora Gaming 70%Team Nemesis 30%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
52% · 259 games45% · 122 games
Juggernaut23savage
Juggernaut
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 310 games49% · 206 games
Primal Beast4nalog
Primal Beast
Puck
PuckMikoto
50% · 362 games49% · 339 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Naga Siren
Naga SirenOli
57% · 138 games47% · 225 games
PugnaNARMAN
Pugna
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
50% · 291 game49% · 468 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct31:12
Aurora Gaming 69%Team Nemesis 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNightfall
54% · 95 games46% · 107 games
Troll Warlord23savage
Troll Warlord
Leshrac
LeshracMikoto
56% · 158 games45% · 372 games
Storm Spirit4nalog
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 181 game50% · 308 games
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderMira
57% · 296 games56% · 84 games
Skywrath MageJhocam
Skywrath Mage
Jakiro
JakiroOli
47% · 392 games48% · 251 game
PugnaNARMAN
Pugna
Game 3prediction missed37:41
Aurora Gaming 69%Team Nemesis 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 54:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNightfall
55% · 244 games53% · 306 games
Nature's Prophet23savage
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
48% · 371 game49% · 464 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
54% · 210 games48% · 183 games
AxeJabz
Axe
Jakiro
JakiroOli
46% · 568 games48% · 328 games
SnapfireJhocam
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
52% · 286 games47% · 398 games
WarlockNARMAN
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 84%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3