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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 49 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 30 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 29 games
72%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
71%
Windranger
Windranger
Nightfall · 28 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 25 games
52%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 23 games
61%

Natus Vincere

Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 19 games
89%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 13 games
77%
Bane
Banesignature
Riddys · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
479 picks · 288 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
337 picks · 139 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
331 picks · 151 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 461 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 437 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 298 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
271 picks · 200 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 245 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 81%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total56% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:38
Aurora Gaming 50%Natus Vincere 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkiter
48% · 130 games43% · 120 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
49% · 215 games51% · 195 games
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Doom
DoomWs
49% · 117 games52% · 417 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKaori
56% · 147 games55% · 251 game
MiranaDaze
Mirana
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
48% · 454 games46% · 80 games
Witch DoctorRiddys
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction missed15:20
Aurora Gaming 52%Natus Vincere 48%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
52% · 152 games48% · 148 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Largo
LargoWs
57% · 301 game52% · 429 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Invoker
InvokerStojkov
51% · 242 games51% · 388 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerMira
43% · 444 games53% · 583 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
45% · 544 games48% · 135 games
UndyingRiddys
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 56%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2