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MESA Invitational 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 14 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 14 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 13 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 12 games
50%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 9 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
14%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Kyzko · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 6 games
33%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 5 games
20%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 669 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 497 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 539 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
358 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
330 picks · 437 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
329 picks · 350 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 597 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 559 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:12
Aurora Gaming 71%Team Secret 29%
The model gave 71% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPalos
51% · 103 games49% · 120 games
Bristleback423
Bristleback
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJabz
42% · 66 games50% · 185 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAbed
48% · 106 games48% · 109 games
Terrorbladeseimei
Terrorblade
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQ
52% · 210 games50% · 132 games
PugnaPuppey
Pugna
Chen
ChenOli
62% · 93 games41% · 32 games
Bounty HunterKyzko
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct41:19
Aurora Gaming 69%Team Secret 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackJabz
49% · 49 games46% · 104 games
Ursa423
Ursa
Puck
PuckAbed
57% · 84 games54% · 82 games
EarthshakerAinkrad
Earthshaker
Windranger
WindrangerPalos
51% · 113 games46% · 67 games
Viperseimei
Viper
Rubick
RubickQ
48% · 184 games52% · 83 games
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Nyx Assassin
Chen
ChenOli
52% · 70 games44% · 164 games
JakiroPuppey
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 84%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2