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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNC Predatorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

TNC Predator

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 18 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 16 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 15 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 15 games
47%
Luna
Luna
Palos · 14 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 12 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Tims · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 656 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 568 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
401 picks · 370 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
396 picks · 708 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
369 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
333 picks · 944 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 75%
Hero pool strength55% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:19
Aurora Gaming 68%TNC Predator 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 39:06.
Game 2prediction missed33:9
Aurora Gaming 68%TNC Predator 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 29:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 68%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2