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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 39 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 38 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 38 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 29 games
72%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 29 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 28 games
71%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 27 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 26 games
88%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 35 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
78%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 21 game
67%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 20 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
626 picks · 993 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
527 picks · 437 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
454 picks · 632 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 491 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
449 picks · 1057 bans
55%
Warlock
Warlock
438 picks · 281 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 579 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 505 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 68%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total56% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:28
Aurora Gaming 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
49% · 303 games41% · 91 game
KezPure~
Kez
Huskar
HuskarLorenof
53% · 90 games46% · 252 games
Batrider33
Batrider
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
54% · 371 game49% · 284 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
49% · 175 games55% · 85 games
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMira
56% · 101 game48% · 328 games
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct27:12
Aurora Gaming 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
52% · 192 games53% · 139 games
KezPure~
Kez
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
46% · 364 games52% · 214 games
Doom33
Doom
Mars
MarsWs
49% · 346 games51% · 593 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
49% · 564 games50% · 614 games
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
55% · 301 game45% · 207 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct30:31
Aurora Gaming 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:09:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
50% · 327 games47% · 574 games
Dragon KnightPure~
Dragon Knight
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
51% · 242 games43% · 242 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Largo
LargoWs
62% · 54 games52% · 185 games
Doom33
Doom
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
49% · 459 games54% · 134 games
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
52% · 273 games45% · 220 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 56%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3