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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 54 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 48 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 47 games
64%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 43 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 42 games
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 36 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 33 games
76%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 32 games
63%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 44 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 32 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 30 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 26 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 26 games
73%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 24 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
676 picks · 855 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
586 picks · 603 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
497 picks · 429 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
488 picks · 338 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
430 picks · 1115 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 696 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
403 picks · 1031 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 627 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 4
Model total56% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:26
Aurora Gaming 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNightfall
45% · 57 games44% · 120 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
45% · 104 games49% · 21 game
AlchemistPure~
Alchemist
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
52% · 158 games53% · 127 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
55% · 139 games33% · 13 games
VenomancerWhitemon
Venomancer
Rubick
RubickMira
55% · 72 games54% · 249 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed42:36
Aurora Gaming 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 54:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNightfall
52% · 241 game51% · 334 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
42% · 254 games48% · 252 games
Leshracbzm
Leshrac
Mars
MarsWs
51% · 241 game50% · 60 games
AlchemistPure~
Alchemist
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
53% · 123 games49% · 369 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
50% · 200 games56% · 44 games
VenomancerWhitemon
Venomancer
Game 3prediction correct18:30
Aurora Gaming 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNightfall
43% · 53 games58% · 242 games
Sand Kingbzm
Sand King
Puck
PuckMikoto
52% · 309 games61% · 159 games
Largo33
Largo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
41% · 118 games44% · 55 games
AlchemistPure~
Alchemist
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
48% · 228 games48% · 575 games
TuskAri
Tusk
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
46% · 442 games55% · 119 games
LionWhitemon
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 56%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3