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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 39 games
51%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mira · 35 games
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 33 games
76%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 32 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 24 games
63%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 28 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Antares · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
531 picks · 567 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
386 picks · 227 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 420 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 483 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
330 picks · 864 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
323 picks · 316 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
319 picks · 887 bans
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
299 picks · 670 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:20
Aurora Gaming 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
47% · 183 games52% · 270 games
DoomV-Tune
Doom
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
45% · 148 games54% · 266 games
PuckSerenada
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
43% · 226 games55% · 260 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Lion
LionMira
50% · 182 games49% · 171 game
WarlockPuppey
Warlock
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPanto
49% · 343 games55% · 115 games
RubickOneJey
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed15:39
Aurora Gaming 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
46% · 148 games57% · 54 games
LycanDaxak
Lycan
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
50% · 200 games52% · 19 games
Anti-MageV-Tune
Anti-Mage
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 5 games48% · 67 games
RubickSerenada
Rubick
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
35% · 11 games53% · 262 games
BatriderPuppey
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaPanto
48% · 176 games53% · 138 games
MagnusOneJey
Magnus
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2