DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Hoodwink
Mira · 30 games
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 30 games
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 26 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 25 games
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 24 games
Warlock
Kaori · 22 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Mikoto · 21 game
Virtus.pro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 28 games
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 28 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 23 games
Pucksignature
Abed · 22 games
Warlock
Fly · 22 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 21 game
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
609 picks · 949 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 435 bans
Centaur Warrunner
484 picks · 636 bans
Dragon Knight
468 picks · 625 bans
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 963 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 662 bans
Warlock
399 picks · 242 bans
Mars
394 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:14
Aurora Gaming 75%Virtus.pro 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaNightfall
GyrocopterTimado
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Storm SpiritAbed
Ember SpiritLorenof
MarsSabeRLight-
HoodwinkMira
PhoenixFly
Shadow DemonKaori
Dark WillowHellscream
Game 2prediction correct33:16
Aurora Gaming 74%Virtus.pro 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerNightfall
Storm SpiritAbed
Ember SpiritLorenof
UnderlordSabeRLight-
MarsWs
AbaddonTimado
Dark WillowMira
WarlockFly
PhoenixKaori
TinyHellscream
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 86%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2