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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 53 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 48 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 47 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 42 games
76%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 42 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 36 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 34 games
74%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 33 games
61%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 35 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 26 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 25 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
44%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 25 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 22 games
77%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 18 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Hellscream · 18 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
687 picks · 843 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
595 picks · 610 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 423 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
486 picks · 337 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
424 picks · 1108 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
405 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 699 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 629 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 37%
Hero pool strength59% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total93% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Aurora Gaming 79%Virtus.pro 21%
The model gave 79% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 26:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackWs
48% · 268 games47% · 322 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Marci
MarciNightfall
53% · 204 games46% · 443 games
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckMikoto
46% · 528 games62% · 115 games
LargoSabeRLight-
Largo
Warlock
WarlockKaori
44% · 354 games59% · 128 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Lion
LionMira
48% · 90 games48% · 436 games
Shadow ShamanFly
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct37:14
Aurora Gaming 80%Virtus.pro 20%
The model gave 80% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
57% · 76 games47% · 371 game
WindrangerTimado
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
50% · 269 games48% · 156 games
InvokerAbed
Invoker
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
47% · 85 games47% · 168 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
50% · 557 games47% · 162 games
DazzleFly
Dazzle
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
53% · 264 games52% · 394 games
Shadow DemonHellscream
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 93%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2