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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 43 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 42 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 40 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
72%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 31 game
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 29 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 28 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 27 games
85%

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 25 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
55%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 17 games
88%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 16 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
626 picks · 999 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
519 picks · 445 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 502 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
451 picks · 627 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
451 picks · 1068 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
447 picks · 285 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 586 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
411 picks · 500 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total64% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:18
Aurora Gaming 57%Xtreme Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
54% · 303 games55% · 115 games
KezAme
Kez
Viper
ViperLorenof
48% · 96 games46% · 304 games
Queen of PainNothingToSay
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterWs
52% · 239 games51% · 357 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Tiny
TinyMira
43% · 481 game46% · 601 game
WarlockxNova
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
52% · 639 games53% · 381 game
Shadow Shamanfy
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed18:35
Aurora Gaming 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 52:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
52% · 238 games51% · 144 games
WeaverAme
Weaver
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
44% · 292 games61% · 81 game
LargoXxs
Largo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
43% · 125 games52% · 395 games
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
43% · 198 games56% · 326 games
Shadow Shamanfy
Shadow Shaman
Tiny
TinyMira
47% · 501 game53% · 408 games
WarlockxNova
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed14:29
Aurora Gaming 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
46% · 230 games50% · 112 games
TinkerNothingToSay
Tinker
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
49% · 209 games51% · 403 games
BeastmasterAme
Beastmaster
Razor
RazorLorenof
52% · 105 gameslittle data
VisageXxs
Visage
Tusk
TuskMira
49% · 472 games49% · 582 games
Tinyfy
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
51% · 612 games53% · 531 game
RingmasterxNova
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 64%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3