DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 35 games
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 34 games
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 34 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 28 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 28 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 26 games
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 26 games
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 25 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 30 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 28 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 26 games
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 20 games
Leshrac
Moon · 20 games
Marsoften banned
zeal · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
622 picks · 960 bans
Tusk
512 picks · 432 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 627 bans
Shadow Demon
436 picks · 988 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 468 bans
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 513 bans
Warlock
417 picks · 260 bans
Mars
394 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 34%
Hero pool strength62% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total96% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:28
Aurora Gaming 86%Yakult Brothers 14%
The model gave 86% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 47:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerNightfall
Storm SpiritMoon
RazorLorenof
Kezflyfly
MarsWs
BatriderYang
Nyx AssassinMira
Warlock天命
PhoenixKaori
ClockwerkBoBoKa
Game 2prediction correct26:15
Aurora Gaming 83%Yakult Brothers 17%
The model gave 83% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 25:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Dragon Knightflyfly
HuskarLorenof
RazorMoon
MarsWs
UnderlordYang
HoodwinkMira
LargoBoBoKa
WarlockKaori
Ringmaster天命
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 96%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2