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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 28 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 28 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 27 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 23 games
65%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 21 game
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 20 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 20 games
70%

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 31 game
52%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 26 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 26 games
62%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 26 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 682 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 482 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 546 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
344 picks · 178 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 449 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
323 picks · 650 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
314 picks · 323 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:37
AVULUS 53%1w Team 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by 1w Team in 55:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSmiling Knight
58% · 168 games51% · 106 games
BristlebackMunkushi~
Bristleback
Earthshaker
EarthshakerStormstormer
54% · 55 games54% · 251 game
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Underlord
UnderlordXibbe
49% · 45 games53% · 72 games
DawnbreakerCloud
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatriderEkki
50% · 240 games43% · 146 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
43% · 212 games46% · 145 games
PugnaRESPECT
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed8:43
AVULUS 51%1w Team 49%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSmiling Knight
49% · 151 game57% · 164 games
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Lina
LinaStormstormer
44% · 55 games51% · 98 games
DawnbreakerCloud
Dawnbreaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
47% · 162 games50% · 117 games
Earth SpiritSquad1x
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
45% · 173 games51% · 333 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Lion
LionEkki
53% · 207 games51% · 36 games
LichRESPECT
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 54%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2