PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Alone in Junglewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
No games played over 6 months.
Alone in Jungle
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
414 picks · 318 bans
Hoodwink
410 picks · 442 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 825 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 878 bans
Phoenix
360 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 506 bans
Clockwerk
342 picks · 486 bans
Dragon Knight
302 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
AVULUS 75%Alone in Jungle 25%
The model gave 75% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Alone in Jungle.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 75%
Series resultAlone in Jungle 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1