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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
35%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 16 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 16 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 14 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 13 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 12 games
50%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 29 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 29 games
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 26 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 24 games
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
600 picks · 938 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 428 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 643 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 653 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 948 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 654 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 528 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
379 picks · 233 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total87% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:27
AVULUS 26%Aurora Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 25:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
62% · 152 games47% · 156 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Queen of Pain
Queen of Paindualrazee
45% · 279 games50% · 212 games
Shadow FiendLorenof
Shadow Fiend
Batrider
BatriderCorrupted
53% · 311 games47% · 94 games
UnderlordWs
Underlord
Phoenix
Phoenixasdekor_r
52% · 206 games48% · 368 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Marci
MarciWein
50% · 219 games47% · 337 games
TinyMira
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct28:42
AVULUS 25%Aurora Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTA2000
48% · 48 games46% · 137 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Batrider
Batriderdualrazee
49% · 151 game46% · 119 games
Shadow FiendLorenof
Shadow Fiend
Razor
RazorCorrupted
58% · 39 games54% · 82 games
Primal BeastWs
Primal Beast
Mirana
Miranaasdekor_r
57% · 38 games44% · 116 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Tiny
TinyWein
47% · 254 games59% · 76 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 87%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2