PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
beastcoastloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Batridersignature
Ekki · 18 games
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 13 games
Snipersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Naga Sirensignature
SoNNeikO · 10 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
341 picks · 254 bans
Snapfire
341 picks · 281 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 438 bans
Hoodwink
306 picks · 346 bans
Enchantress
305 picks · 517 bans
Rubick
305 picks · 299 bans
Windranger
303 picks · 433 bans
Dragon Knight
300 picks · 481 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 32%
Hero pool strength63% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:35
AVULUS 71%beastcoast 29%
The model gave 71% on AVULUS — the game was taken by beastcoast in 39:47.
Game 2prediction correct31:12
AVULUS 71%beastcoast 29%
The model gave 71% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 39:48.
Game 3prediction correct36:7
AVULUS 71%beastcoast 29%
The model gave 71% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 26:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 71%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3