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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 30 games
60%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 29 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 28 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 23 games
65%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 21 game
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 20 games
80%

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Matthew · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
82%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 16 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 15 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 15 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
415 picks · 490 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 529 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 183 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
340 picks · 451 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 593 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
303 picks · 488 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
300 picks · 634 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 68%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:6
AVULUS 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by AVULUS in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
46% · 397 games45% · 175 games
RazorJaCkky
Razor
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
56% · 90 games49% · 257 games
TimbersawFbz
Timbersaw
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
54% · 170 games47% · 364 games
PangolierMac
Pangolier
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
53% · 163 games58% · 64 games
EarthshakerTims
Earthshaker
Lion
LionEkki
50% · 279 games44% · 239 games
PhoenixJaunuel
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct14:29
AVULUS 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckStormstormer
48% · 238 games49% · 124 games
MedusaJaCkky
Medusa
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
49% · 80 games51% · 219 games
Primal BeastFbz
Primal Beast
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
54% · 120 games47% · 229 games
TinyMac
Tiny
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
46% · 168 games57% · 120 games
Naga SirenJaunuel
Naga Siren
Tusk
TuskEkki
49% · 260 games51% · 174 games
MuertaTims
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2