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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DMSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 28 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 26 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 26 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
68%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 21 game
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 21 game
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 20 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 19 games
74%

DMS

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Shigetsu · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 13 games
38%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 13 games
77%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hduo · 11 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 677 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 475 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 543 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
336 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 431 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
325 picks · 654 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 319 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total84% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:18
AVULUS 71%DMS 29%
The model gave 71% on AVULUS — the game was taken by DMS in 29:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
51% · 163 games49% · 117 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerStormstormer
51% · 41 game42% · 268 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierXibbe
55% · 229 games53% · 146 games
Earth Spiritmellojul
Earth Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
52% · 195 games50% · 66 games
Ogre MagiHduo
Ogre Magi
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
53% · 145 games44% · 176 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct27:15
AVULUS 71%DMS 29%
The model gave 71% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 33:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSmiling Knight
53% · 223 games44% · 264 games
Dragon KnightShigetsu
Dragon Knight
Viper
ViperStormstormer
48% · 71 game55% · 98 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
47% · 179 games51% · 89 games
Earth Spiritmellojul
Earth Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
50% · 41 game56% · 179 games
Lionprblms
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
50% · 225 games46% · 109 games
PugnaHduo
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct24:11
AVULUS 70%DMS 30%
The model gave 70% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
42% · 11 games44% · 76 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
47% · 188 games40% · 17 games
Drow RangerShigetsu
Drow Ranger
Puck
PuckStormstormer
53% · 235 games54% · 320 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
56% · 248 games55% · 268 games
Batriderprblms
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
38% · 26 games44% · 27 games
Ogre MagiHduo
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 84%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3