?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 14 games
79%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 11 games
82%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Stormstormer · 10 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 8 games
88%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
42%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 11 games
9%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 454 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
325 picks · 313 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
322 picks · 373 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
316 picks · 268 bans
54%
Windranger
Windranger
290 picks · 406 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 454 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
284 picks · 488 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 30%
Hero pool strength68% AVULUS
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total88% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:9
AVULUS 73%Dragon Esports 27%
The model gave 73% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 28:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
53% · 202 games47% · 69 games
Medusalil pleb
Medusa
Underlord
UnderlordXibbe
52% · 50 games49% · 59 games
Queen of Paindualrazee
Queen of Pain
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
55% · 80 games53% · 213 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressSoNNeikO
45% · 151 game42% · 145 games
Dark Willowarmageddon
Dark Willow
Mirana
MiranaEkki
47% · 121 game58% · 118 games
Naga SirenMary_y
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct34:14
AVULUS 75%Dragon Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
51% · 248 games51% · 217 games
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
51% · 79 games57% · 103 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
35% · 81 game56% · 212 games
KunkkaInfernal
Kunkka
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
49% · 192 games51% · 167 games
Lionarmageddon
Lion
Batrider
BatriderEkki
47% · 290 games49% · 191 game
TuskMary_y
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 88%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2