CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 37 games
Jakiro
Fly · 31 game
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 25 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 18 games
Warlock
Fly · 18 games
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
Tuskoften banned
dEsire · 17 games
eSpoiled
Marci
Wein · 10 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 9 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 8 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 8 games
Windranger
Wein · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 7 games
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
548 picks · 565 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 419 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 390 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 519 bans
Dark Willow
326 picks · 196 bans
Terrorblade
326 picks · 719 bans
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 604 bans
Storm Spirit
302 picks · 441 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:10
AVULUS 68%eSpoiled 32%
The model gave 68% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 53:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaKami
Terrorbladessnovv1
Storm SpiritWorick
Chenasdekor_r
UndyingXibbe
MarciWein
BanedEsire
WarlockFly
Game 2prediction correct35:27
AVULUS 69%eSpoiled 31%
The model gave 69% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomKami
Svenssnovv1
UndyingXibbe
Pugnaasdekor_r
Ember SpiritWorick
Shadow ShamanWein
JakiroFly
TuskdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 84%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2