RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HAVU Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 11 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 10 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
HAVU Gaming
Dragon Knightoften banned
MTD · 1 game
Windrangeroften banned
MTD · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
374 picks · 357 bans
Hoodwink
363 picks · 406 bans
Jakiro
341 picks · 256 bans
Pangolier
332 picks · 525 bans
Sven
296 picks · 306 bans
Phoenix
290 picks · 500 bans
Ember Spirit
282 picks · 596 bans
Windranger
280 picks · 343 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 29%
Hero pool strength67% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:9
AVULUS 97%HAVU Gaming 3%
The model gave 97% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 21:09.
Game 2prediction correct42:38
AVULUS 97%HAVU Gaming 3%
The model gave 97% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 38:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 97%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2