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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 35 games
49%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 35 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 35 games
51%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 30 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 29 games
48%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 28 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SoNNeikO · 25 games
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
68%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 25 games
52%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 24 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
476 picks · 709 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
385 picks · 754 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
370 picks · 378 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
355 picks · 212 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 634 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
343 picks · 660 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
315 picks · 577 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
315 picks · 421 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:16
AVULUS 53%Heroic 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 53:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
57% · 128 games42% · 112 games
Sniper4nalog
Sniper
Puck
PuckMo13ei
55% · 95 games47% · 96 games
KunkkaYuma
Kunkka
Enigma
EnigmaXibbe
59% · 50 games53% · 90 games
SlardarWisper
Slardar
Night Stalker
Night StalkerdEsire
46% · 42 games48% · 74 games
TinkerKJ
Tinker
Jakiro
JakiroFly
48% · 159 games44% · 102 games
RingmasterScofield
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct12:25
AVULUS 49%Heroic 51%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 52:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSmiling Knight
47% · 193 games45% · 243 games
MorphlingYuma
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMo13ei
45% · 439 games51% · 219 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Sand King
Sand KingXibbe
56% · 253 games46% · 260 games
Ember Spirit4nalog
Ember Spirit
Mirana
MiranadEsire
55% · 76 games53% · 349 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFly
49% · 182 games55% · 72 games
RingmasterKJ
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct21:33
AVULUS 50%Heroic 50%
The model gave 50% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 52:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
51% · 188 games45% · 212 games
MorphlingYuma
Morphling
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
54% · 136 games48% · 342 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
48% · 557 games47% · 153 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
47% · 139 games51% · 272 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Ringmaster
RingmasterFly
54% · 63 games56% · 104 games
Ancient ApparitionKJ
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 51%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3