?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circleloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 17 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
35%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 16 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 13 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 12 games
50%

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 23 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 22 games
41%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 21 game
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
24%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 17 games
35%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 946 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 437 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 640 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 638 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
444 picks · 962 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 658 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 540 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
389 picks · 238 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:13
AVULUS 56%Inner Circle 44%
The model gave 56% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckdualrazee
45% · 421 game56% · 172 games
Phantom Assassin423
Phantom Assassin
Windranger
WindrangerTA2000
53% · 155 games51% · 300 games
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
52% · 141 game51% · 333 games
Marslaise
Mars
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
49% · 365 games54% · 257 games
ChenSe
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerWein
42% · 63 games44% · 83 games
LionJing
Lion
Game 2prediction correct39:23
AVULUS 58%Inner Circle 42%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 46:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTA2000
54% · 358 games48% · 167 games
Kunkkaniche
Kunkka
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
50% · 110 games49% · 390 games
Gyrocopter423
Gyrocopter
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
57% · 162 games46% · 226 games
Axelaise
Axe
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
51% · 518 games43% · 261 game
WindrangerJing
Windranger
Hoodwink
HoodwinkWein
54% · 250 games48% · 354 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 66%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2