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BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Kalmychatawin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 31 game
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 26 games
35%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 20 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 17 games
53%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
50%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
466 picks · 239 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
458 picks · 443 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 945 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 370 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
304 picks · 148 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
294 picks · 225 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
288 picks · 669 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
286 picks · 642 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed53:51
AVULUS 61%Kalmychata 39%
The model gave 61% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 1:03:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 61%
Series resultKalmychata 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1