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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 31 game
68%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 31 game
71%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 30 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 26 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 24 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 24 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
615 picks · 599 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
575 picks · 233 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
538 picks · 712 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 317 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 244 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 544 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
429 picks · 596 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
414 picks · 400 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
AVULUS 50%HULIGANI 50%
The model gave 50% on AVULUS — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 44:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
49% · 383 games48% · 157 games
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinssnovv1
45% · 150 games49% · 181 game
TimbersawBb3px
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeCorrupted
50% · 212 games52% · 152 games
Leshracerase
Leshrac
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWein
53% · 257 games47% · 458 games
Tuskslimeyao
Tusk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanasdekor_r
54% · 282 games54% · 336 games
WarlockRESPECT
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct33:23
AVULUS 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:07:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinssnovv1
57% · 158 games49% · 237 games
Abaddonv1olent-
Abaddon
Sniper
Sniperdualrazee
47% · 43 games47% · 425 games
Tinyerase
Tiny
Axe
AxeCorrupted
43% · 168 games55% · 167 games
ChenRESPECT
Chen
Warlock
Warlockasdekor_r
50% · 304 games56% · 19 games
OmniknightBb3px
Omniknight
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanWein
54% · 226 games49% · 51 game
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 51%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2