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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Most Wantedloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 16 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 14 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 13 games
54%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 23 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 17 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 17 games
82%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 16 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 16 games
81%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 15 games
80%
Marci
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
665 picks · 287 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 598 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
569 picks · 728 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
551 picks · 268 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 326 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
495 picks · 578 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
493 picks · 465 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
473 picks · 675 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 71%
Hero pool strength65% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:17
AVULUS 40%Most Wanted 60%
The model gave 60% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by AVULUS in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonssnovv1
46% · 130 games62% · 30 games
Omniknight423
Omniknight
Sniper
Sniperdualrazee
41% · 34 games48% · 72 games
Huskarniche
Huskar
Axe
AxeCorrupted
41% · 92 games56% · 130 games
Primal BeastfortniteMan
Primal Beast
Venomancer
Venomancerasdekor_r
51% · 23 games56% · 232 games
RingmasterPonlo
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskWein
48% · 185 games
Game 2prediction missed28:19
AVULUS 42%Most Wanted 58%
The model gave 58% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by AVULUS in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautssnovv1
58% · 33 games49% · 172 games
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
50% · 53 games65% · 24 games
Omniknight423
Omniknight
Axe
AxeCorrupted
48% · 99 games46% · 121 game
KunkkafortniteMan
Kunkka
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
48% · 182 games50% · 271 game
Shadow DemonPonlo
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskWein
49% · 221 game
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 61%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2