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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 29 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 28 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xibbe · 15 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
40%

MOUZ

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 12 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Thiolicor · 11 games
27%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 10 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
327 picks · 308 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 800 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
277 picks · 754 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
276 picks · 308 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
275 picks · 137 bans
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 173 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
271 picks · 248 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
261 picks · 792 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:28
AVULUS 39%MOUZ 61%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by AVULUS in 47:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
53% · 153 games51% · 122 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLorenof
50% · 151 game57% · 104 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
45% · 131 game46% · 103 games
UndyingBOOM
Undying
Snapfire
SnapfireEkki
46% · 140 games54% · 193 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerJANTER
45% · 132 games54% · 185 games
Earthshakeryamich
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction missed39:36
AVULUS 40%MOUZ 60%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by AVULUS in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
58% · 214 games51% · 212 games
InvokerMidOne
Invoker
Timbersaw
TimbersawLorenof
51% · 123 games45% · 200 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Undying
UndyingSabeRLight-
49% · 73 games50% · 170 games
Sand KingBOOM
Sand King
Batrider
BatriderEkki
50% · 253 games46% · 149 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJANTER
55% · 103 games43% · 35 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 68%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2