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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 43 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 38 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 37 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 34 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xibbe · 28 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 27 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 26 games
73%

Natus Vincere

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 20 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sancity · 14 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 11 games
27%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 10 games
30%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Kaori · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 732 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 471 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
477 picks · 777 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 366 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
423 picks · 1039 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
421 picks · 518 bans
49%
Bristleback
Bristleback
411 picks · 932 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 541 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:32
AVULUS 52%Natus Vincere 48%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
47% · 86 games49% · 202 games
Phantom AssassinShad
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
47% · 217 games43% · 140 games
Queen of PainSancity
Queen of Pain
Abaddon
AbaddonXibbe
54% · 48 games50% · 126 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderEkki
46% · 187 games56% · 131 game
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSoNNeikO
58% · 184 games52% · 123 games
Bounty HunterQBFY
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction missed28:44
AVULUS 51%Natus Vincere 49%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:01:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSmiling Knight
52% · 147 games45% · 209 games
SvenShad
Sven
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
52% · 306 games54% · 259 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
47% · 123 games47% · 101 game
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickEkki
48% · 313 games59% · 144 games
EnigmaKaori
Enigma
Silencer
SilencerSoNNeikO
55% · 20 games45% · 196 games
JakiroQBFY
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 57%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2