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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 36 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 33 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 32 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 28 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 26 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 22 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 28 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 22 games
77%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
86%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 19 games
89%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 17 games
82%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 530 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
401 picks · 332 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 386 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 578 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
349 picks · 173 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
343 picks · 429 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 785 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 479 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 73%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:9
AVULUS 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 31:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
47% · 332 games52% · 37 games
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Phantom Assassin
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
46% · 129 games49% · 306 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierXibbe
41% · 402 games54% · 485 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderEkki
46% · 333 games53% · 348 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
55% · 125 games58% · 145 games
Elder TitanZayac
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct25:15
AVULUS 59%Natus Vincere Junior 41%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 23:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
55% · 291 game34% · 26 games
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Phantom Assassin
Lycan
LycanXibbe
54% · 16 games53% · 213 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStormstormer
50% · 136 games48% · 128 games
Earth SpiritNiku
Earth Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
52% · 34 games44% · 53 games
UndyingRiddys
Undying
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
51% · 177 games51% · 234 games
LionZayac
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 65%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2