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CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 25 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 24 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 20 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
24%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 16 games
69%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Wein · 14 games
36%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 12 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 12 games
17%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 10 games
10%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 10 games
20%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Gothic- · 10 games
10%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 9 games
11%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 9 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 9 games
11%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
598 picks · 880 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
495 picks · 524 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
458 picks · 414 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
438 picks · 300 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
409 picks · 1039 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 667 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 578 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
376 picks · 566 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 13%
Hero pool strength66% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total88% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:7
AVULUS 74%Natus Vincere Junior 26%
The model gave 74% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckdualrazee
46% · 373 games55% · 113 games
Largokrol9ash
Largo
Clinkz
ClinkzDarkLord^
50% · 46 games52% · 402 games
Void Spiritgbc
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsPalantimos
51% · 227 games53% · 202 games
DazzleHyugadoto
Dazzle
Phoenix
Phoenixasdekor_r
48% · 89 games44% · 196 games
MarciGothic-
Marci
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
48% · 178 games
Game 2prediction correct32:20
AVULUS 76%Natus Vincere Junior 24%
The model gave 76% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 44:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
52% · 164 games36% · 60 games
Tinkergbc
Tinker
Clinkz
ClinkzDarkLord^
56% · 44 games48% · 128 games
Largokrol9ash
Largo
Mars
MarsPalantimos
55% · 186 games49% · 95 games
Bounty HunterGothic-
Bounty Hunter
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
50% · 180 games48% · 340 games
DisruptorHyugadoto
Disruptor
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorasdekor_r
59% · 49 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 88%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2