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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Night Pulseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 40 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 38 games
66%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 36 games
61%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 29 games
62%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 28 games
79%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 24 games
71%

Night Pulse

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 16 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Hduo · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 9 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
V-Tune · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
JANTER · 9 games
33%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
JANTER · 9 games
44%
Ursa
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
486 picks · 410 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
446 picks · 582 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
424 picks · 534 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
423 picks · 229 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
415 picks · 724 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
405 picks · 482 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 594 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
360 picks · 940 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength59% AVULUS
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total67% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:16
AVULUS 59%Night Pulse 41%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 34:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSmiling Knight
48% · 144 games50% · 312 games
GyrocopterKami
Gyrocopter
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
46% · 135 games50% · 221 game
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
50% · 159 games54% · 71 game
TidehunterDavai
Tidehunter
Lion
LionEkki
54% · 176 games52% · 99 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
46% · 312 games51% · 223 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct31:13
AVULUS 59%Night Pulse 41%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 26:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
47% · 180 games48% · 68 games
Phantom AssassinKami
Phantom Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
50% · 126 games49% · 294 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
49% · 346 games53% · 242 games
Earth SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
56% · 290 games58% · 172 games
ChenKidaro
Chen
Tusk
TuskEkki
43% · 243 games45% · 409 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 67%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2