FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 3:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Lionsignature
Ekki · 34 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 31 game
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 31 game
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 27 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 22 games
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 23 games
Primal Beastsignature
No!ob · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Phoenix
GH · 17 games
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 17 games
Marssignature
No!ob · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
488 picks · 627 bans
Clockwerk
464 picks · 530 bans
Pangolier
392 picks · 573 bans
Dark Willow
378 picks · 190 bans
Batrider
359 picks · 404 bans
Muerta
351 picks · 263 bans
Invoker
335 picks · 914 bans
Beastmaster
330 picks · 688 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:29
AVULUS 59%Nigma Galaxy 41%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackSmiling Knight
GyrocopterMiracle-
Earth SpiritStormstormer
LinaSumaiL
TidehunterXibbe
Void SpiritNo!ob
BatriderEkki
IoGH
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Shadow DemonOmaR
Game 2prediction correct49:27
AVULUS 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 47:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritStormstormer
GyrocopterMiracle-
RazorSmiling Knight
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
DawnbreakerXibbe
Primal BeastNo!ob
BatriderEkki
MagnusOmaR
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
IoGH
Game 3prediction correct39:17
AVULUS 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 43:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingSmiling Knight
MedusaMiracle-
TinyStormstormer
Templar AssassinSumaiL
DawnbreakerXibbe
PhoenixNo!ob
Nyx AssassinEkki
PugnaGH
EnigmaSoNNeikO
Centaur WarrunnerOmaR
Game 4prediction correct36:30
AVULUS 58%Nigma Galaxy 42%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackSmiling Knight
EarthshakerMiracle-
LycanXibbe
BeastmasterNo!ob
TinyStormstormer
InvokerSumaiL
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
PhoenixGH
LionEkki
MagnusOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 59%
Series resultAVULUS 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4