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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 39 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 36 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 36 games
61%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 28 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 27 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 24 games
71%

OG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 24 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 23 games
39%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 21 game
62%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 17 games
41%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 16 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 15 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
xNova · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 407 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
450 picks · 579 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
421 picks · 524 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
416 picks · 227 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
412 picks · 696 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
403 picks · 460 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 592 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
355 picks · 932 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% AVULUS
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total74% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
AVULUS 66%OG 34%
The model gave 66% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 19:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
53% · 71 game50% · 132 games
Templar Assassin23savage
Templar Assassin
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
47% · 142 games49% · 215 games
TinyNine
Tiny
Enigma
EnigmaXibbe
53% · 159 games43% · 98 games
BrewmasterChodΣX
Brewmaster
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
52% · 173 games45% · 71 game
LichxNova
Lich
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinEkki
62% · 149 games45% · 178 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct25:5
AVULUS 63%OG 37%
The model gave 63% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 25:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
43% · 86 games53% · 315 games
Gyrocopter23savage
Gyrocopter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
48% · 186 games58% · 189 games
Ember SpiritNine
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
47% · 130 games54% · 123 games
BristlebackChodΣX
Bristleback
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
41% · 174 games61% · 103 games
ChenxNova
Chen
Tiny
TinyEkki
49% · 465 games47% · 311 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 74%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2